The peak oil production forecast of China: Result after distinguishing conventional and unconventional oil

Researchers in China have tended not to distinguish between conventional and unconventional oil, leading to inaccuracies in their estimates of future oil production. The purpose of this paper is to make an accurate estimate of the pattern of China’s future oil production, by properly distinguishing between these oil types. We make our analysis by treating conventional oil as a single category, and by dividing unconventional oil into four categories: viscous oil, light tight oil, kerogen oil, and oil sands. For each of these categories, we determine appropriate historical production amounts as well as estimates of ultimate recoverable resources (URR). We then estimate future production by year, using the Multi-Cycle Generalized Weng Model for categories where past production history is available, and Ward et al.’s Stochastic Resource-Constrained Growth Model for the oil sands, where no history is available. Our analysis indicates that China’s conventional oil production peaked in the year 2010. Adding China’s unconventional oil would delay the overall peak until 2029, or 19 years after the peak of conventional oil production. Compared to conventional oil, unconventional oil is higher in cost and more likely to lead to environmental problems. Furthermore, low oil prices add uncertainty regarding future production of unconventional oil.